Sbastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including 19FortyFive, The National Interest, NBC News, Forbes.com and War is Boring. The latest: Ukraines air defenses thwarted a number of Russian missiles fired at targets across the country on Thursday. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. [37]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka. Absolutely hilarious to watch. Image: AP. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. Recently, Russian military spending has ranged between the equivalent of $50 and $60 billion per year less than 10% of the annual US defense budget. While procuring new aircraft, the VKS retired over a thousand The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. That said, Russias invasion of Ukraine has been particularly sluggish and flawed. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. Armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not It isnt a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. Written By. [7]Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Security Service (FSB) board on February 28 and emphasized the role of the FSB in supporting the war in Ukraine in a law enforcement and counterterrorism capacity. They don't address terrorism, insurgent groups or groups like mercenaries. Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own, Ukrainian drones have been picking off Russian convoys, The Supreme Courts Conservatives Tried Very Hard Today to Find a Good Reason to Screw Biden, Theres a Clear Answer to the Texas Judge Who Thinks He Can Ban Abortion Pills Nationwide. Putins invasion has rallied Ukrainian nationalism, stiffened the Wests spine, and sent his own economy into a tailspin. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. So how do we enforce it? [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Over the past decade, the Russian armed forces have greatly improved, especially in the numbers of troops and quality of weapons. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. But this doesnt mean they will win in the long run. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. So I think we - you know, and the laws of war will once again prove rather feckless in changing his decision to do that. That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. Thanks for signing up! As the resistance mounts and as the Russians offensive is thwarted, Putin and his generals can be expected to turn up the heat, shellingand, recently, bombingcities, destroying whatever they can destroy, for destructions sake. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Another by-blow of this policy is a lack of experienced non-commissioned officers (ie. as well as other partner offers and accept our. So it's really curious. [47]Ukraines Southern Operational Command reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance occasionally try to move between islands in the Dnipro River in converted civilian vessels and that Ukrainian forces destroyed two of these watercraft on February 28. What are you thinking of? More recently, after an underwhelming performance in a war with Georgia in 2008, in 2009 Moscow began a new drive to reorganize, professionalize, modernize and selectively recapitalize its military. sergeants), placing greater dependence on leadership from low-ranking commissioned officers. The Ukrainians have obliterated several old tanks armed with abundant anti-tank-guided missiles. https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not Russias attempts at an offensive near Vuhledar, as much of the fighting in the Donbas region turned into an effective standstill, with neither side able to break through. Despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have weakened Russias forces. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia's weapons need to be modernized. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. To be sure, most military experts say that Russia will eventually subdue Ukraines army. Meanwhile, it is the Ukrainians who've seen more updated in their defenses, adopting fast-moving guerrilla tactics and using social media to relentlessly put out their message. Russia's Army is primarily made up of poorly trained conscripts. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. So what - and I'm going to ask you to explain, you know, what that means, but when you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, tell me what you see. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia's military is failing so far in Ukraine. Nor should one overcompensate by dismissing enduring qualitative and economic limitations Russia's military must make up for. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. Nor have the Russians established air superiority, even though their air force far outnumbers Ukraines. [33]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http [35]https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 [36]https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20. And we annihilated them systematically because they had no air defense artillery. The barrage was the most intense attack https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480. "For this, as I said, it is essential that we promote competition among manufacturers and developers.". The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. At least a few didnt even know that they were in Ukrainethey thought they were still doing exercises in Belarus. I'm talking about sort of turning different parties against each other. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. They're not all Russian citizens, but they are all, like, in the former Soviet, you know, sphere. And it appears to keep happening, with Russian forces unable to avoid the mines. That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. Send me updates about Slate special offers. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. The vice president last week, in her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she was asked about this. | Yes, in 1996 Chechnyan separatists managed to compel Russian troops to withdraw in the First Chechen War but were then brutally crushed four years later. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. [80], Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. Its a bad army!. Even in victorious campaigns in 1943-1945, it was typical for the Red Army to suffer higher casualties than its defeated foes. They have been updated through the decades. Correction, Feb. 28, 2022: This article originally misidentified Gen. Omar Bradley as British. The authoritative record of NPRs programming is the audio record. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. [54]Armenian officials have not yet publicly commented on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia. A 2020 CSIS article, for example, counts 260,000 conscript soldiers and 410,000 contract soldiers, the latter paid an average of 62,000 rubles per month. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. And these mercenaries, which are not supposed to be there, move through it for victory. Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. Even the best armies take a while to get going. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. Like, the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war. I mean, I'm thinking of disinformation tactics. The Russians do not have unlimited quantities of their most modern equipment. There is no debating that. Gone are the days of the 1970s when the US He was American. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. A Saint Petersburg local news source reported that a graduate student faces criminal charges for breaking a window at the Vyborg Raion, Saint Petersburg military registration and enlistment office, and painting anti-war slogans in the office on February 26. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons If it's not going to be the United Nations, which has - many think has been AWOL for the last 30 years, then who is - you know, who's going to be enforcing that? Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. #Ukraine: A Russian T-72B3 tank and BMP-2 IFV were destroyed by the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade using an AT mine and ATGM respectively in Mykilske near Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. Therefore, large troop-transport planes tried to land, even though the airport hadnt been completely secured and Ukrainian air defense systems hadnt been destroyed. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on Wagner Group-affiliated media outletRIAFANposted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. Apoorva Kaul . There are reasons to believe that the strength of the Russian armed forces has been overestimated. Weapons manufacturers should get feedback from soldiers, he said on Wednesday. [29], Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas), Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. [76]The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian occupation officials in Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast are forcing students to write letters to Russian military personnel and attend daily hour-long informational sessions that present the Russian framing of the war in Ukraine.[77]. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. [49]Humenyuk reported that Ukrainian forces do not shell residential areas or critical infrastructure in southern Ukraine and strike Russian forces ensuring that local residents will not be affected. This whole question of what constitutes a war crime in the modern era was established in the Geneva Convention in 1949. In the 21st century, Moscow must make do with a smaller, more professional military, and one that's better at keeping highly trained personnel alive. And there will be lots of casualties. The Patriot air defence is outdated. Stay up to date with what you want to know. And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. It hasn't - the horror hasn't started yet. Russian battlefield defeats, and mounting casualties, also have an impact. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. 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