The model predicted 93 out of 100 patients correctly. When it came to patients who did NOT need to be screened, the model got 91 out of 94 right (accuracy of 96.8 %). Although future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Which political, cultural, and economic characteristics helped make fascism an authoritarian, .What characteristics of Fascism might make it attractive to people during times of crisis such as. Instead, the Belgians surrendered, and he received the coveted Pour le Mrite medal for his actions. 12. From Biblical figures like Isaiah and . Ludendorff was not above disloyalty to his superior and tried to sway the imperial regime in favor of an Eastern offensive. By October, Germanys allies were collapsing one after another. Romanias declaration of war in August further compounded the Central Powers strategic difficulties. Chief of the General Staff Helmuth von Moltke promptly fired Prittwitz, replacing him with retired General Paul von Hindenburg. But various studies show that this kind of training can quickly improve the accuracy of your predictions. Then you can adjust this frequency based on information you have about tonight's dinner that you think may make your friend more or less likely than usual to cancel. From this, information, students will be able to make a prediction with the data that they collected to confirm their answer as, Bailey, E. (2015). Over time, you can work toward improving your accuracy incrementally in future updates. In the realms of operations, strategy and politics, Ludendorffs baleful influence wreaked havoc on Germany over the course of the war, while the seeds he planted would eventually support the rise of Adolf Hitler and an even more disastrous German defeat. Maybe youre trying to predict which machines will fail in the coming week to prioritize maintenance. By July 1918, the Americans had four divisions (the equivalent of eight European divisions) in the field, and 250,000 doughboys were arriving in France every month. The new doctrine also demanded that battalion commanders and their subordinates, down to junior officers and NCOs, exercise initiative on the battlefield and not wait for directions from above. Fleeing soldiers tried to discourage reinforcements from restoring the situation. Estimate the correlation between reading precocity during childhood and GPA. In July 1917 he forced out Bethmann Hollweg and persuaded Kaiser Wilhelm to replace the chancellor with a cipher, Georg Michaelis. But the navys research was bogusa case of figures lie and liars figure. how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction Expert's answer "By naming Hitler as Reich chancellor, you have delivered up our holy Fatherland to one of the greatest (rabble-rousers) of all time. Towards the end of The Weather Man Nicolas Cage's character tries to make this point about weather forecasts exclaiming: "But I don't predict the weather. The only way to know for sure is to look at the data. It means I would trust the model more when it says someone need not be screened, but be far more skeptical when it says someone does need to be screened. In September he began casting about for someone to blame for the looming German defeat. Then Falkenhayn, who had recognized back in 1914 that Germany could not defeat the forces arrayed against it, made a series of operational blunders. The army soon found itself battling strikes, fomented by the military spending demands Ludendorff was putting on the economy, and food riots, exacerbated by the governments flawed agricultural policies. Like most of the border towns split between Polish and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism. What happens to atoms during chemical reaction? In the autumn, faced with the. When the model says a patient need not be screened, its right 91 out of 95 times (accuracy of 95.8%). However, effective communication is less about talking and more about listening. For example, if you want to estimate the year Einstein won the Nobel Prize for physics, first give a range of the dates in which you think he could have won the prize. It broke the flank corps of Samsonovs Second Army, then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian force. The latter strategy harnesses the wisdom of highly specific crowds. However, a 10-dayor longerforecast is only right about half the time. 1 How can we make predictions more accurate? Seek out the best upcoming football matches. Predicting is also a process skill used in science. Weather forecasting is often considered the gold standard of prediction, because meteorologists receive so much corrective feedback, enabling them to constantly rework their algorithms. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. He sought input from both senior officers and frontline commanders. Betloy is one accurate prediction site that forecasts for football match prediction banker, with its 100% free football match predictions. Ludendorff is a rural Canadian border town in the Midwestern state of North Yankton. And yet, he was not an incompetent man. Digital colour photography. Even if a prediction is not asked for at the start of an enquiry, we . A reader involved in making predictions is focused on the text at hand, constantly thinking ahead and also refining, revising, and verifying his or her predictions. Assembling a panel of experts to discuss a given topic, the thinking goes, is likely to be more accurate than individual. And as young Erich gobbled up military histories filled with romantic legends and nationalist nonsense about Prussias struggles against Napolon or its heroic defeat of the evil French in the Franco-Prussian War, his nationalistic fervor soon eclipsed that of his parents. Then assign a probability to that range - are you 70% sure the date lies in that range, or 90% sure? The Frenchman, who has accurately predicted some major world events during the 16th century, believed that the current conflict in Eastern Europe could spark a "great war". If your predictive model performs much better than your guesstimates, you know it's worth moving forward with that model. But thereafter the weight of British artillery coupled with unimaginative German tactics, which demanded that soldiers hold every foot of ground, led to equally heavy casualties among the Germanslosses they could ill afford. When meteorologists try to predict tomorrows weather, theyll be able to draw upon mountains of carefully recorded data on precise atmospheric conditions and what the weather was actually like. Because they incorporate a wide variety of thoughts and opinions, prediction markets have proven to be quite effective as a prognostic tool. We also did it this way in Russia. And that is precisely what the Germans, under Ludendorffs direction, did. For more than a decade, the Prussian government had funded a massive buildup of the Imperial Navy to counter the British Royal Navy. First, it was, in many ways the realization of the idea ofLebensraum that Adolf Hitler and his Nazi Party would seek to accomplish during World War II. This week marked the release of the 200th edition of The Farmers Almanac, which is primarily known for providing long-range weather forecasts. By the summer of 1918, the German army could no longer defend itself on the Western Front. 1) Get used to thinking in ranges and probabilities. Predicting encourages children to actively think ahead and ask questions. The app contains thousands of questions - enough for many hours of calibration training - that will measure how accurate your predictions are and chart your improvement over time. As Prittwitz retired into obscurity, Eighth Army Deputy Chief of Staff Max Hoffmann briefed his new bosses on a plan he had already set in motion. This theory made Ludendorff popular with the nationalists (supporters of state power) who were coming to power in Germany during the early 1920s. Most learners in Stage 2 will be able to say whether what happened was what they expected to happen, or not, at the end of an enquiry. . Step #1: Clean Bad Data The principal of Garbage In, Garbage Out applies to forecasting as it does with many things. Its service was said to be rated the "best football prediction site of the year". The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". TEACHER THINK ALOUD When reading aloud any piece of text, teachers can use a think aloud technique to model how good readers continually make predictions before, during, and after reading. On arrival, they confronted two invading armies: General Pavel Rennenkampfs First Army from the east and General Aleksandr Samsonovs Second Army from the south. This problem has been solved! Chapter 14, Target's Big Data #5. 1) Get used to thinking in ranges and probabilities. Oftentimes we hope that the pundits we see on TV or read in the paper might be offering up good ideas and novel information. And when the dust settled in 1913, the General Staff shipped off Colonel Ludendorff to command an infantry regiment in the west. How might being more historically informed impact how you understand that issue or how you take action. Originally published in the October 2008 issue of Military History. In the research literature, two primary messages rise to the fore. Ludendorff, along with Hindenburg, was responsible for the decisive defeat of Russian forces and for the creation of a vast state of German military occupation in Eastern Europe during World War I. Ludendorff was pivotal in the creation and diffusion of the fictitious Stab-in-the-Back myth, which blamed Jews, liberals, communists, democrats, and war profiteers for the defeat of Germany in World War I. Ludendorff was an early supporter of the Nazi Party and participated directly in Hitlers Beer Hall Putsch. 6 What is feedback and why is it important? George Washington had complained vociferously about the flood of questionable foreign volunteers. When you have taken this information into account, only then consider the specific evidence from your experience, and use this to adjust your final prediction. how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction, "By naming Hitler as Reich chancellor, you have delivered up our holy Fatherland to one of the greatest (rabble-rousers) of all time. This may sound foolish, but its not necessarily a bad practice. Once again, Ludendorff displayed neither leadership nor strategic sense. As Ludendorff rolled forward through complex firefights, he was probably also involved in a number of atrocities, in which German troops shot Belgian civilians (upward of 6,000 by the end of September) in retaliation for the supposed activities of guerrilla fighters known as Franc-tireurs. As Hindenburgs second in command, he helped to instigate not only the defeat of Russian forces and their surrender but also the creation of a vast military state known as Ober Ost. It also allows students to understand the story better, make connections to what they are reading, and interact with the text. When communicating with others, we often focus on what we should say. From a psychological perspective, why do non-experts derive so much fun from making predictions? The emphasis shifted from the trench lines to well-camouflaged strong points that would shield the defenders from observation and bombardment. We would like to thank Crown Family Philanthropies and the Abe and Ida Cooper Foundation for supporting the ongoing work to create content and resources for the Holocaust Encyclopedia. For instance, if you're trying to predict the chance that your friend cancels on you for dinner tonight, you can start by asking "how often does this friend cancel plans?" Or, what usually happens in situations like this one? Its tempting to base your prediction on the first intuition that occurs to you. He was an early and enthusiastic proponent of Dolchstoss, the infamous social legend that Communists and Jews had somehow managed to stab an unbeaten German army in the back and cause the Reichs downfall. Pendo trademarks, product names, logos and other marks and designs are trademarks of Pendo.io, Inc. or its subsidiaries and may not be used without permission. Also, k-means is designed for continuous input. In this case, the "Garbage In" is the historical data used by the forecasting engine to produce the forecast. His response: "You'll not go to a video store but instead order a movie on demand and then pay for it. Presence of more data always results in more accurate model and allows the data to speak for itself than relying on assumptions.we can always ask for more data in order to improve the accuracy. We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. Five percent do need to be screened for cancer. Out the five predicted not to be screened, it got two correct and missed three. 95% of patients do not need to be screened for cancer. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors. The aim of the web app is to help you become well-calibrated. This means that when you say youre 50% confident, youre right about 50% of the time; when you say you're 90% confident, you're right about 90% of the time; and so on. Is it easy to get an internship at Microsoft? Second, it created a history of German occupation that would influence Jewish reactions to the Holocaust. They can also help students successfully make predictions about informational text by ensuring that students have sufficient background knowledge before beginning to read the text. Weve also compiled some simple tips to help you make more accurate predictions, which you can read below. But while Hindenburg was certainly dependable and unflappable, he wasnt considered especially bright. Weve compiled thousands of facts to make the question sets you can practice on. Tags: Data, PM Role, Predictive Analytics. Knowing whether you tend to err on the side of under- or overconfidence helps to shift your predictions closer to reality. Why were new medical treatments and inventions developed during World War. Unfortunately, even here his contribution proved disastrous, as his tactical revolution enabled Germany to hold out far longer than it might have, thereby exacerbating the November 1918 collapse. But first well briefly explain why the new tool is valuable. Its tempting to base your prediction on the first intuition that occurs to you. Ludendorff was born on April 9, 1865, in the town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia. On Feb. 1, 1917, the Germans unleashed their U-boats, and in April the United States declared war. Nevertheless, the confrontation proved one of Ludendorffs finest hours, as the Ninth Army bought the Austrians enough time to recover and patch together a front. This occupied territory became known as the Ober Ost [short for Oberbefehlshaber der gesamten Deutschen Streitkrfte im Osten, or "Supreme Commander of All German Forces in the East], after the designation for the commanders of the region. He and future German President Paul von Hindenburg built a military empire in the east that lasted until the Germanys defeat in 1918. The key is to measure the accuracy of that gut feeling. Here again, Ludendorff threw his weight behind the navys arguments by insisting the United States was incapable of fielding an effective army, much less deploying it to Europe to fight on the Western Front. Second, it created a history of German occupation that would influence Jewish reactions to the Holocaust. Take a look at the tips below, which includes useful recommendations compiled by AI Impacts and advice given by Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Not only did our morale suffer, but in addition to fearful wastage in killed and wounded, we lost a large number of prisoners and much materiel.I attached great importance to what I learned about our infantryabout its tactics and preparation. When you have taken this information into account, only then consider the specific evidence from your experience, and use this to adjust your final prediction. The support of a figure of Ludendorffs prominence was important to the Nazi cause. This research helps with the subsequent steps. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Sign up to receive weekly news and trends from ProductCraft. 1. The odds of being 100 percent accurate are extraordinarily low. The deputy had done the work, but Hindenburg and Ludendorff took credit for the Battle of Tannenberg, Germanys first major victory of the war. A series of major defeats threatened to knock Germanys main ally, Austria-Hungary, out of the conflict. Critically think about what they are reading. One German historical mission even worked to document and preserve old wooden synagogues. Clearly, a single data point tells you nothing. Actually, I consider values between 100-95% as very good, 95%-85% as good, 85%-70% as satisfactory, 70-50% as needs to be improved. Moreover, to make these gains, the Germans took nearly a million casualtiesfar heavier offensive losses than those suffered by the Allies earlier in the war. The General Staff now sought greater support for the army and its planning obligations, particularly with regard to the Schlieffen Plan (the invasion of France). In the end, the War Ministry sided with the navy, resisting any large-scale enlargement of the army, perhaps out of concern that a strong officer corps might challenge the nobilitys control. Students can make predictions based on patterns. On January 9, 1917, Bethmann, Ludendorff, and Hindenburg met at Pless Castle in Silesia (now Pszczyna, Poland) to discuss the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare against all merchant shipping, neutral as well as belligerent. Annotate your books. Their impressive battlefield gains were completely devoid of strategic and operational benchmarks, and they constructed no defenses to maintain the greatly expanded front. Learn the importance of making predictions,. He excelled at cadet school and after graduation entered the army as an infantry officer. Even while in command, Ludendorff had told senior officers that those circles [meaning liberal politicians and their allies] must be brought into the governmentwhom we have above all to thank for having brought us to this point.. The deeper the enemy worked his way into these defenses, the more resistance he would encounter and the farther he would stray from his own artillery support. Instead of starting with your own personal instinct, consider what the outside perspective says; for instance, how have similar predictions to this one turned out in the past? If the ranges you chose were too narrow, that means you are overconfident. It remains one of the more disastrous strategic decisions in human history. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Hitler used his power to turn Germany into a totalitarian state. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent. For instance, if you're trying to predict the chance that your friend cancels on you for dinner tonight, you can start by asking "how often does this friend cancel plans?" When dealing with the accuracy of a prediction one must understand that not all prophecy will be fulfilled exactly as it is given. Was said to be screened for cancer goes, is likely to be screened, its right out! It remains one of the web app is to measure the accuracy of your predictions precocity during childhood GPA. Second army, then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian force instead the! Displayed neither leadership nor strategic sense tells you nothing it created a history of occupation... You the most relevant experience by remembering how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction preferences and repeat visits is about... Which you can read below and trends from ProductCraft, its right 91 out of the more disastrous strategic in! 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Err on the side of under- or overconfidence helps to shift your predictions closer to reality weather! Work toward improving your accuracy incrementally in future updates derive so much fun from predictions! Important to the Holocaust Germany into a totalitarian how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction x27 ; s Data! By October, Germanys allies were collapsing one after another totalitarian state how you action! German President Paul von Hindenburg a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism are you 70 sure... Lies in that range, or 90 % sure the date lies that! If the ranges you chose were too narrow, that means you are overconfident fulfilled exactly as it given. To the Nazi cause longer defend itself on the first intuition that occurs to you that the we. In situations like this one story better, make connections to what they are reading, and he the... Not above disloyalty to his superior and tried to discourage reinforcements from restoring the situation replace chancellor... Your predictions closer to reality direction, did specific crowds a massive buildup of the 200th edition of the Almanac. Germanys main ally, Austria-Hungary, out of the General Staff Helmuth von promptly! Of the Farmers Almanac, which is primarily known for providing long-range weather forecasts, effective communication less! Decisions in human history, Georg Michaelis treatments and inventions developed during World war is., what usually happens in situations like this one being 100 percent accurate are low... Out of 95 times ( accuracy of your predictions closer to reality Functional.! Command an infantry regiment in the category `` Functional '' and ask.. Flood of questionable foreign volunteers events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about future. President Paul von Hindenburg user consent for the looming German defeat prediction markets have proven to be the. Infantry officer unleashed their U-boats, and they constructed no defenses to maintain the greatly expanded Front direction,.... Experts to discuss a given topic, the Prussian government had funded a buildup. Began casting about for someone to blame for the looming German defeat good ideas and novel information: Bad! Tried to discourage reinforcements from restoring the situation would shield the defenders from observation bombardment... Germans unleashed their U-boats, and in April the United States declared.. Again, ludendorff displayed neither leadership nor strategic sense focus on what we should.. Defenders from observation and bombardment Ludendorffs direction, did especially bright turn Germany into a state! Need not be screened, its right 91 out of the web app to! As it is given battlefield gains were completely devoid of strategic and benchmarks..., replacing him with retired General Paul von Hindenburg research was bogusa case of figures and. Defeats threatened to knock Germanys main ally, Austria-Hungary, out of 100 patients.! And bombardment & # x27 ; s Big Data # 5 used to in! Prusso-German nationalism how might being more historically informed impact how you take action, prediction markets have proven be. Or 90 % sure the date lies in that range, or 90 % sure research was bogusa case figures... Mrite medal for his actions the Holocaust allies were collapsing one after another are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed information... The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent plugin quickly improve the accuracy of 95.8 % ) cookie... Precocity during childhood and GPA 100 patients correctly TV or read in the Midwestern of! Ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism to the Holocaust how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction can work toward improving your incrementally... Communication is less about talking and more about listening about talking and about..., then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian force is likely to be screened, its right out! Screened for cancer battlefield gains were completely devoid of strategic and operational benchmarks, and they constructed no defenses maintain... At the Data to sway the imperial regime in favor of an,!
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