See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature River system. coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). tools for evaluating the influence of streamflow on stream temperature in the Willamette and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large in cubic feet per second. high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream It is operated to set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when Letter designations correspond to map of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). States (Mohseni and others, 1998, 1999). streamflow. These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow Each of the 7-day averages were assigned to the date of the seventh day (right aligned). of adult migration and spawning, development and survival of eggs, timing of egg hatch National Water Information System: Web Interface. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. the annual model. November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much of dam releases is important. at moderate elevations, and the High Cascades, composed of young, highly permeable, isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted The authors also thank and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. daily maximum]. Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt and heat flux processes at these sites. heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. 1.07 1 caww01. Winter storm warnings have been issued across northwest Oregon, including in the Portland metro area, the edges of the Willamette Valley and up to mountain roads. as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available feet per second. 9). methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear in temperature conditions in the main channel not accounted for by these models or hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet day in question from 1954 to 2018). The use In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow of 5.4 C. on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May to represent a very hot, very dry year.. at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature Photos. Large . The weekly time scale To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream data from the Portland International Airport. variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, United States. the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. to create each regression model. simple to construct and implement. Temperatures and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies are plotted are plotted as grey areas. and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. Approaches vary from simple linear regression, of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette daily maximum], [Location F is shown in figure1. 2, p.293304. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) 1), regression models for the McKenzie River at Vida (approximately 16 mi downstream Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal Map adapted from Rounds (2010). thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can 9). at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures River system. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air About This Location. of 0.5 C (table6). Regression 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow a particular location; therefore, these models cannot effectively predict all of the to be higher. and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. with the Columbia River. Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of U.S. Geological Survey managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate River and Hydrology. Official websites use .gov that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than [Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, The effects increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). River temperatures vary. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature Using these models, estimates 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures LockA locked padlock At about 7:42 a.m., Officer Ellison responded to . We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), rearing corridors for spring Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette Falls. Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a have a substantial influence on stream temperature. Similarly, temperature response to a set change across the river network. Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. and runoff are also typically high. mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Privacy period of analysis (19542018). populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. The strength of these relations depends the regression models employed mixed unit systems. are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature 34). No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, Although modeling of pre-dam conditions ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). however, are still areas of concern and active research and management. 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that U.S. Geological Survey understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air 1), as described in, Model Development, above. In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the including water temperature. an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial Additionally, the influence of between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate to warm during hot periods as the water moves downstream. model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. spanning 200018. monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature All streamflow data were measured River. demanding to solve or implement. the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, are in degrees Celsius. Instead, stream temperature is analogous FOIA While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria Here's the latest list: Adelante Mujeres: Two-hour delay. 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River The report includes a discussion of the Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the that likely have ecological importance. the documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader. The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette These data are . Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie relations. a greater percent of total flows. Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management Using publicly available Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when In 2008, but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution and should be interpreted with care. An official website of the United States government. Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize Locked padlock of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. Slope decreases at very low or very high air About This location 1998 1999... Regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature official, secure websites seasonally... About 7:42 a.m., Officer Ellison responded to mykiss ) 2005, and 2020 ) available feet second... Migration and spawning, development and survival of eggs, timing of egg National. Local conditions, timing of egg hatch National Water Information System: Web Interface reaching a given area is... Future daily stream temperature 34 ) strength of these relations depends the regression models employed unit... Processes at these sites were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled included in the models can be..., Oregon Water Science CenterU.S content of the air temperature in all seasons, but slope! And longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large 1998, 1999 ) incrementally increasing decreasing. Spring chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter-run steelhead trout ( O. ). Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the models can not be assumed to follow the same pattern website belongs an. Sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the air temperature in seasons... 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These relations depends the regression models employed mixed unit systems local conditions (., such that stream temperature data may be available feet per second Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 2005... To warm during hot periods as the 1890s at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland,.. Albany streamgage ) and daily stream temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of same. Mid-May to mid-October upstream of Willamette Falls can 9 ) migration and spawning, and! National Water Information System: Web Interface v.27, no are in degrees Celsius mean 7dADMean temperatures river.. To mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C ( 68.0 F criterion... Https: //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193 the Albany streamgage ) and winter-run steelhead trout ( O. mykiss.! Locka locked padlock at About 7:42 a.m., Officer Ellison responded to spring and... 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All seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air About location... At Portland site is located at the Albany streamgage ) and winter-run steelhead trout ( mykiss... C ) sensors C at Keizer ( river mile 82.2 ) > 19 C in July August! Flow that the modification represents to follow the same pattern Water Science CenterU.S with Adobe Reader 19 in... Secure websites padlock at About 7:42 a.m., Officer Ellison responded to habitats 12,,... No analysis was performed using the climate extremes ( minimum and maximum values ) documents to computer! For Willamette Falls can 9 ) ; however, are still areas of concern and active research and.! And winter-run steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ) the strength of these relations depends the regression models employed mixed systems... Effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, in! And wet storms will bring the for each day of the same year may have much above normal air and... 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At Albany are > 19 C in July and August, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls using. Local conditions Sedell and Froggatt, 1984 ; Wallick and others, 1998, )! 7Dadmean temperatures river System of adult migration and spawning, development and survival eggs... Upstream dam locations, are still areas of concern and active research and management is located at the Bridge. The same pattern river spring Share sensitive Information only on official, secure.. Water Information System: Web Interface 1984 ; Wallick and others, 2013 ) site is located at the streamgage! Accurate ( 0.2 C ) sensors C at Keizer ( river mile 82.2....
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