Inner south of Melbourne. In 2016, Labor actually suffered a primary vote swing of four percent and a two-party swing of two percent even as it nearly reduced the Coalition to minority government nationally. The only things saving Josh Burns here today are the cratering Liberal vote and, most importantly of all, the perfect little gerrymander with Higgins. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.). Labor's vote fell further in 2016, finishing third behind the Liberal candidate, and stayed in third place at the 2019 election after Labor disendorsed its candidate mid-campaign. Long post I know, but in short the Liberals are already ahead of Labor on 3CP terms, and if vote continue to break exactly as they have been, they grow their lead while the Greens continue to catch up. Please note that ballot preparation procedures vary by state and between jurisdictions within states. Its also worth noting Prahran covers a fair amount of Macnamara residents. You may be trying to access this site from a secured browser on the server. But when you distribute the minor preferences, it means Absent votes are actually breaking 31% LIB, 30.2% ALP and 38.8% GRN in 3CP terms. If all the remaining votes, using Kevin Bonhams expectation of 1750 postal votes, break exactly as they currently are, I only have the Greens beating Labor by about 50 votes which would be an automatic recount. Lots of renters and young people. As shown by the plot of first preference vote, the Greens have replaced Labor as the major left party in the electorate of Melbourne. The LIB/ALP 2PP here will be Labors best since before Caulfield was in the seat and the Lib PV may be the lowest in 5-6 decades. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977. As you say FL, the main thing working against Steph HM here is actually just the complete obliteration of the Liberals most likely making this a Labor v Greens count. 2016 Victorian Ports Corporation (Melbourne). Support local journalism. Redistribution Loses Windsor to neighbouring Higgins. Paterson works in mental health and runs programs and interventions to make workplaces more psychologically safe and mentally healthy. Continuing the gradual downwards trend in the Labor primary vote, in the 2013 election, Labor was returned with a primary vote of less than 32 percent. Labor appeared to have picked up primary votes in both Brisbane and Macnamara just the greens picked up more, so not all negative for them Interestingly the preferences for non-green/lib/labor voters in those seats (mainly right-wing UAP,ON, LDP and smaller left-wing AJP) were split around 50% lib, 35% green and 15% alp so assume more UAP/ON/LDP voters preferenced greens over labor. Another phenomenal result for the Greens. This is a seat where Labor has usually trailed on first preference votes, relying on Australian Democrat and more recently on Green preferences to come from behind and win. Victorian Ports Corporation (Melbourne) Level 5, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne 3000. Agents must notify Ports Victoria of any changes to this schedule. But Melbourne differs from other electorates in two ways. Also disagree with you Dan M. It is completely misleading to analyse the Labor Albert Park Margin and Caulfield Margin considering that Balaclava, St Kilda and other areas are in the Caulfield electorate (fairly progressive electorates). Assume no leap in turnout leaves 8 792 votes remaining to be counted, less 6.44% informal rate (566 votes) = 8 226 votes;- are not sufficient from which Green & Liberals can find 8 295 primary votes. West Melbourne, a 10-square-mile enclave nestled between its larger neighbors of Melbourne and Palm Bay, moved to support its own water plant to meet the needs of the growing city. Therefore the Greens are rapidly catching up but are not doing so at the expense of the Liberals. Wills ( ALP 8.5% v GRN) is the seat for former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke and runs north-west between Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek from inner-city Brunswick to the Western Ring Road. This is a list of electoral results for the Division of Melbourne Ports in Australian federal elections from the division's creation in 1901 until its abolition in 2019. Melbourne Ports was held by the Australian Labor Party from 1906 until 2019, when it was renamed. Therefore, just say Libs are averaging 26% and Labor 29% on new batches, after minor preferences (others are currently averaging around 12%) they are basically getting around 30.5% each on 3PP terms, which means the Liberals lead isnt going away. Numerous annual continuing-education classes on ethics and city planning classes. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. The Greens could very easily gain this seat if Albanese turns out to be a disappointment and if the looming redistribution removes Caulfield and adds South Yarra and Prahran. ReD Being second to Labour merely guarantees a Labour win. These kinds of investments drive responsible growth, Adams said. The votes in these categories already counted are favouring Greens by a good enough margin to close the gap between Labor and Greens on primary which makes it likely for Greens to overtake Labor on minor Party preferences at the 3pp stage. On those boundaries, for decades it was one of the safest Labor seats in the country, and Labor usually easily retained it even during severe nationwide defeats for Labor. . Her best hope now is that the Liberals smash Labor in the postal votes but thats unlikely. As a scientist, I will bring critical thinking to our decision-making. he video of the event is the second of the three videos below. The electorate covers 40 square kilometres. Question now is what becomes of the boundaries at the next election. The two occasions give all candidates a chance to explain their policies and properly address the questions asked by the moderators and audience members. Melbourne has experienced much growth in the quality of life, business opportunities and the arts. Frank Crean was Treasurer in the Whitlam government and is the father of former Labor Leader Simon Crean. It might be close but hard to see. The electorate includes the Melbourne CBD, Docklands, North Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond, Princes Hill, Collingwood, Abbotsford, Fitzroy, Fitzroy North and part of Brunswick East. Issues such as these shouldnt be decided on emotions. In most remaining vote types, the Liberals are currently outpacing Labor by between 1-3% in 3CP terms (despite Labor getting a higher primary vote), and the Greens are currently outpacing Labor by between 5-8%. 2019 Federal Election: A Meet the Candidates for the House of Representatives seat of Macnamara, formerly Melbourne Ports, . I will support the septic-to-sewer program, install more baffle boxes, encourage the use of low-impact development, and decrease our dependence on Lake Washington as our water source. Education: University of Akron/Chancellor University, Political/government/civic experience: 30 years of public service, including four years with the City Council in West Melbourne. City Council members also could soon discuss the feasibility of building their own city-run fire department. [2] The new name was gazetted on 13 July 2018, and was first used at the 2019 federal election. 1966 was the last time the Liberal PV was below 30% in Melbourne Ports / Macnamara. Occupation: Full-time West Melbourne City Council member; previous mortgage underwriter for Chase Bank for nineyears; previous title agent for more than 20 years; previous finance manager for several auto dealerships. The moderator was Bernadene Voss, a two-term Councillor and three-time Mayor in the City of Port Phillip. Thoughts on who wouldve won this seat based on the state election figures? Council members also comprise three of the seven members of the. Boyd Community Hub, 207 City Rd Southbank. In 2013, the Liberal Party reversed its policy on preference recommendations and advocated Liberal voters put Labor ahead of the Greens. My prediction here is that the Greens will probably fall *just* short of knocking Labor out of second place, because just too much has to go right for them with such a small margin of error for it to happen. I will work diligently with the council and various boards to direct and focus attention to these significant concerns. But, because the margins are so slim, what favours Labor is that it wont take much of a change to how votes are breaking (either Libs or Greens start doing worse) for them to stay in the top two and win. Runoff from neighborhoods in the St. Johns watershed should go west, rather than being pumped to the lagoon. Support local journalism. Tues, 15th November with the Nina Taylor (ALP), Lauren Sherson (Liberal) and Kim Samiotis (Greens). Flooding concerns: With increased flooding during Saturday's deluge, Eau Gallie business owners blame Brightline, Seeking affordable housing site: Daily Bread drops plan to build affordable housing on Malabar Road; alternate locations sought. In 2018, I pledged to work toward a healthy Indian River Lagoon. Will the current flows (which put the Greens on track to pass Labor) continue? Eg. The Greens candidate will again be Steph Hodgins-May, a lawyer who contested Ballarat in 2013, Melbourne Ports in 2016 and Macnamara in 2019. I think Albo will be popular come 2025 but Joshs failure to change mental health policy will be damaging in such a progressive seat such as Macnamara. The four candidates are incumbents Diana Adams, John Dittmore and Andrea Young, along U.S. Navy veteran William Johnson, who sits on the city's Board of Adjustments. This may be due to Melbourne having a sitting Green MP in Adam Bandt, or be related to Labor pulling out of campaigning after disendorsing its candidate. But damn Id be nervous if I was them with the way each batch of votes has been breaking. This is a mathematical certainty that labour will be in top two primary count. The only seat that is in-doubt in my mind is Gilmore which is likely to go Liberal. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining. This information is provided for illustrative purposes. No way Labor comes 3rd. The Green margin versus the Liberal Party rises from 21.8% to 22.6%.There were Green two-candidate preferred majorities in all 32 polling places in 2019, its vote rising above 70% in 22 and 80% in 13. He has worked as a computer systems administrator and consultant for small-medium enterprise. Support local journalism. Its a nailbiter and is shaping up for all 3 to be over 33% in the 3PP count (would that be the closest 3PP count ever? Continue moving West Melbourne toward independence by building a potable water facility. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Just to clarify Daniel, Liberals currently lead Labor by 50 votes on the 3CP, but the rstes at which new votes are breaking, after the Libs outpace Labor 3:1 on minor preferences, is actually adding to that lead, not reducing it. Get breaking news alerts directly to your phone with our app, Adam Bandt Greens Leader retains safe seat. To mitigate flooding and traffic issues, upgrades of stormwater and transportation infrastructure in our older neighborhoods must be a city priority. Cleaner, Artist, Operations Clerk and more on Indeed.com Port Melbourne Candidate Jobs in Melbourne VIC (with Salaries) 2022 | Indeed.com Australia Theres an estimated 6500 ballots left to count, and if they continue to break the same way they currently are, and Covid votes also favour the Greens, they will be on track to erase that deficit, while the strong preference flow to the Libs also keeps them ahead of Labor, dropping Labor to third place. The 4PP results were: 1. And; Will there be enough votes left for the Greens to close the gap on current rates? Loses Windsor to neighbouring Higgins. Incumbent Mark LaRusso facesShawn Allred Middleton in the District 2 race. ALP 29,152 3. Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Incredibly close, basically meaning minor preference flows could eliminate any one of the 3, especially since 4 of the minors are right wing and Labor are likely to get the least minor preferences. 2019 Federal Election: A Meet the Candidates for the House of Representatives seat of Macnamara, formerly Melbourne Ports, was held on Tuesday, 16th April in the Community Facility at South Melbourne Primary School, 129 Ferrars St, Southbank. Political/government/civic experience: West Melbourne City Council (appointed June 2022); secretary of Space Coast Field of Dreams board; West Melbourne Citizens Leadership Academy; former deputy chair of West Melbourne Parks & Recreation board; former Brevard educator; Transportation & Intergovernmental Relations Policy Committee member; member of the Melbourne, Palm Bay, Titusville and Cocoa Beach chambers of commerce; and LEAD Brevard board member. 2018 Mayoral Election: A Meet the Candidates was held at Boyd Community Hub on Thursday, 26th April, 2018. Newspoll-You Gov actually picked up a bounce for the Greens over the last six days before E-Day, and that helps explain why late arriving postals in Macnamara appear to be breaking more to Green than Labour. There is an emergency bushfire warning in place for Maintongoonin Victoria. First Preference Results 1983-2019 ), Time listed is at Fawkner Beacon- Time between the Heads and Fawkner Beacon - 3 hours- Time between Fawkner Beacon and berth - 1 hour, Time listed is at Point Richards- Time between the Heads and Point Richards - 3 hours- Time between Point Richards and berth - 2 hours, 2016 Victorian Ports Corporation (Melbourne). Contents 1 Members 2 Election results 2.1 Elections in the 2010s 2.2 Elections in the 2000s Cruise ship schedule 2022-23. William Bowe actually says he thinks its trending Greens. That was the Green path to victory in the local state seat of Prahran at the last two state elections. The other three members of the City Council Mayor Hal Rose, and Councilors Pat Bentley, Daniel McDow and Stephen Phrampus have terms that run until 2024. The current 3CP order after about 87,000 votes is 1 Libs, 2 Labor, 3 Greens. Labor's results ranged from 41.1% at Caulfield Presbyterian Church to 78.3% at St Kilda Primary School where the Greens finished ahead of the Liberal Party on first preferences. The top issue is cleaning up the Indian River Lagoon. Green was also very careful about Brisbane, which shows just how close some of these races have been. Candidate Johnson said he planned on focusing on the citys continued upward trending growth. In the past 13 years, extensive betterments for residents experiencing flooding have been successful. I will continueto support the creation of a West Melbourne Fire Department," Dittmore said. The four candidates are incumbents Diana Adams, John Dittmore and Andrea Young, along U.S. Navy veteranWilliam Johnson, who sits on the citys Board of Adjustments. ', Greek transport minister resigns over train crash; 36 dead, SoCal storm timeline: More snow, heavier rain expected Wednesday, Peoria police investigating shooting that left 1 dead at Circle K, One-On-One With WJZ: Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott defends backing BGE Conduit deal, There's no shortage of salt for NYC roads. Yesterday ABC only called Brisbane for Greens after the Labour candidate made a concession call to the Green candidate. But its certainly possible. It includes vmost of the City of Melbourne north of the Yarra, almost all of the City of Yarra, and a small slice of Moreland Council. Election results in Macnamara at the 2019 federal election Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park and South Melbourne. Support for the Greens rose through the first decade of the twenty first century, polling 15.7% in 2001, 19.0% in 2004, 22.8% and finishing second after preferences in 2007, and 36.2% and achieving victory on Liberal preferences in 2010. Simon's brother David also served as Treasurer of Tasmania in the 1990s. Greens overtaking Labor means Labor will finish 3rd. So let's figure it out. Over nearly four decades, the Liberal support in Melbourne has hovered consistently in the 20-30% range, while the Labor and Green percentages have essentially flipped since the turn of the century. And Vice Mayor Julie Sanders faces Adam Woodworth in the District 6 race. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. For the latest information, searchABC Emergency, For the latestweather warnings in the Northern Territory, search onABC Emergency. Florida 2022 elections. My last 3CP calculation had the Greens 422 preferences ahead of Labour at the final 3CP count in Macnamara. The 2020 City of Melbourne Council elections. Four candidates are vying for three seats on the West Melbourne City Council in the Nov. 8 election, with a number of issues involving infrastructure on the table. Steph Hodgins-May did so much better than I expected. A successful businesswoman, Bernadene has been a resident for 20 years in the electorate of Macnamara. Consequently, sample ballots in different jurisdictions in the same state may not be . https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/albertpark2022/comment-page-1#comment-776581. A list of profiles for Candidates A-Z in the Federal Election 2022 Following its extension eastwards to Caulfield and other Liberal-voting areas in the 1990 redistribution, it became much less secure for Labor. But Im tipping Burns to hold in a Labor v Greens count. [ edit] Primary vote results in Melbourne (Parties that did not get 5% of the vote are omitted) Liberal Labor Australian Democrats Greens Reason Two-candidate-preferred results in Melbourne References [ edit] It seems that the Greens overperformed federal results in Prahran and underperformed in Albert Park and Labor vice versa. Gettin spicy https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm. 2. I would argue if they preferenced the cookers last and Michael OBrien was the leader they would have done better here. Subscribe today. Four incumbents Mayor Paul Alfrey,District 1 Council Member Tim Thomas,District 3 Council Member Yvonne Minus andDistrict 5 Council Member Mimi Hanley are not on the ballot this fall. UAP 4.88%, 1. For more information, see Filling vacancy: Diana Adams appointed to West Melbourne City Council, replacing Daniel Batcheldor, Police chief vacancy: West Melbourne names eight finalists to replace retired police chief Richard Wiley, City manager change: West Melbourne may hire Tim Rhode as city manager; Daniel Batcheldor to leave City Council. (Click on polling place for results)Labor recorded two-party preferred majorities in 27 of the 30 polling places used in 2019, its vote passing 70% in eight. Elected Councillors were sworn in at a Special Council Meeting held on 11 November 2020. 1422 are remaining and they are breaking 24.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 34.2% GRN, 13.2% Other. Here is a rundown of the candidates, based on answers to questionnaires from FLORIDA TODAY. 3483 remaining and they are breaking 25.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 30.8% GRN and 15.6% Other. Labor won a large 70.2% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in St Kilda, 55% in Caulfield and 57.5% in Port Melbourne. It also had a high proportion of atheists and agnostics, with 38.8% of residents answering "No Religion" in the 2016 census, compared to 30.1% nationwide. She taught in a variety of schools, both primary and secondary, and worked as an education consultant both here and in Japan. In Macnamara, the Liberal vote is consistently around 40%, and a Green victory hinges on the Greens passing Labor on first preferences, and then strong flows of Labor preferences putting the Green candidate ahead of the Liberal in the final count. Second Issue: Economic development. It was located to the south of Melbourne's central business district and covered an area of approximately 40 km 2 around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay . Weds, 16th November with Georgie Dragwidge (Indep), Elizabeth Antunovic (Freedom Party) and Cassandra Westwood (Animal Justice Party). Now we have the Libs ahead of Labor by 137 votes, and the Greens only 208 votes behind, with still the following remaining: Provisionals (always favour Greens) Reports of 1000 Covid votes (both parties expect to favour Greens) Still a total 4648 postals issued but not counted. 2018 State Election: A Meet the Candidates for the lower house seat of Albert Park was held at 6pm, on Tuesday, 30th October in the Boyd Community Hub. (See the graph below for first preference votes in Melbourne Ports/Macnamara since 1984.) Either way this might be the last seat to be called because it wont even be mnown who the two-party count is between until a full distribution of preferences, and all 3 combinations are possible. If we consider that there was no minor right wing parties such as LDP and FFV running in 2018 state election there was actually a small increase in the right-wing vote. Dr Richard Peppard is a senior neurologist at St Vincent's Hospital and works in private practice in East Melbourne and in regional Victoria. Current preference flow: LIB 47%, GRN 35.4%, ALP 17.6%. He is a local President of the Finance Sector Union and is a former President of the 50,000-member Bicycle Network which advocates for more sustainable transport and safer riding. The retirement of Danby in 2019 had increased talk of the Greens winning the seat, but new Labor candidate Josh Burns increased his margin over the Greens and added 5% to the Labor two-party preferred margin. McCathie was born and bred in Melbourne and has a background in I.T. What I care about is the community of people. Support local journalism. This will not onlyprovide tax savings, it will allow for a more equitable taxation of the residents of West Melbourne. These two factors, along with the unknown that is the ~1000 Covid phone votes, will most likely determine the outcome but either way, the 3CP count is headed for a photo finish with all 3 parties practically guaranteed to be over 33% with only a couple of hundred votes between them. He was elected Leader after the 2019 election. Previous Meet the Candidates events include: The 2022 Federal Election: A Meet the Candidates was held on 3rd mat at the boyd community Hub. Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. "It must be in a smart, resilient and low-impact manner., Occupation: Small-business owner and nonprofit executive director, Education: Doctorate of public administration (in-progress); master's in educational leadership; bachelor's in elementary education. But I agree with comments on this blog that both Bowes and Green have not called it for Labour, which does not mean that they believe Greens have it, just that it is too close to call. I think there are enough Right Wing Micro Party Party votes to push Libs ahead into first. The successful candidates were: Canal Ward Tim Baxter (Deputy Mayor) Rhonda Clark Louise Crawford Gateway Ward Heather Cunsolo Peter Martin Marcus Pearl (Mayor) Lake Ward Andrew Bond Katherine Copsey Christina Sirakoff Incredible stuff! Attracting and retaining businesses, while improving our infrastructure to keep up with the growth. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931. Six candidates are vying for three seats on the Melbourne City Council on the Nov. 8 ballot, with hopes of helping guide governmental operations of one of the Space Coast's dominant economic communities. If that happens, they win. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time). Amazing result from Steph Hodgins-May and even if she doesnt win, hopefully it will energize her to try a 4th time. Gallop is a Criminal Justice/Breaking News Reporter at FLORIDA TODAY. Sure, the 2CP run-off will be revealed upon the throw of all preferences. Rebuild of State Road 192/Hollywood Boulevard intersection, including Evans Road. Melbourne:2022 elections: Meet the six candidates running for three Melbourne City Council seats; Tel: +61 3 9646 8544Email: Immediately below is the video of the event. Danby, MP for Melbourne Ports since 1998, . Fiscal responsibility: Ensure the citys strong finances by providing budgetary oversight and being fiscally conservative with taxpayer funds, especially with the recent rising costs. Diana Adams appointed to West Melbourne City Council, replacing Daniel Batcheldor, West Melbourne names eight finalists to replace retired police chief Richard Wiley, West Melbourne may hire Tim Rhode as city manager; Daniel Batcheldor to leave City Council, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria Melbourne. So the Liberals have no catching up to do to stay in the top two, because theyre already first by 50 votes. (My prediction is around 33.5% LIB, 33.3% ALP, 33.2% GRN). document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. The former Labor members are Jim Matthews 1906-1931, E.J.Holloway 1931-1951, Frank Crean 1951-1977, Clyde Holding 1977-1998 and Michael Danby 1998-2019. Holloway was secretary of the Melbourne Trades Hall Council, who had stood against Bruce in protest at the government's arbitration policies. Education:Bachelorof Science in criminal justice from Florida Gulf Coast University, Political/government/civic experience:Member of the Melbourne Citizens' Advisory Board, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links: allred4d2.com; Facebook: ShawnAllred Middleton for Melbourne City Council. While Macnamara is mentioned as a possible Green gain, the playing field from which the Greens might emerge as victors differs greatly from that in traditional Labor seats north of the Yarra. And no matter what the result, considering the Greens are currently third on 32.93% and all the remaining votes should favour them, I think its safe to say all 3 candidates will finish between a minimum of 33.1% and a maximum of 33.6% when the 3CP count is complete. Education: Bachelor's degree in business administration in management and another bachelor's degree in business administration accounting and finance. We pay our respects to Elders past, present andemerging. It covers an area of approximately 40 sq km around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay. Before being won by Josh Burns in 2019, the electorate had been represented by only five members in 113 years. Melbourne Ports has become more middle class in recent years with accelerating inner-city gentrification and higher density housing developments. Dec Prepolls are a similar situation. Not just passing legislation in the House if representatives but also the symbolism of legitimacy that Anthony Albanese won a majority in his own right. This must be a record for having the biggest difference between the primary vote and 2PP vote. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Campaign Email: diana@dianaforcouncil.com, Campaign Facebook page: Facebook.com/DianaForWestMelbourne. The Greens are also targetting this seat with the goal of overtaking Labor and winning. ALP 30,499 3. Since Labor already needs the support of the Greens to pass anything through the Senate, it doesnt make a huge difference in practical terms whether they also need Greens (or Independent) support in the House or have a majority in their own right. Cruise seasons usually run from spring to autumn and Station Pier is closed to the public when cruise ships are berthed. Harkin moved into IT, in business development and project management and then started her own small business developing bespoke databases and digital widgets. I will make sure our first responders have the funding, training and equipment to protect and serve the citizens of Melbourne. That is what is putting the greens in contention in both seats. The Green line plots the Green two-candidate preferred vote against Labor 2007-2013 and against the Liberal Party in 2016 and 2019. Council members earn $7,475 annually, plus a $255 monthly travel allowance, City Clerk Kevin McKeown said. 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